2022年8月大雨ボランティア
2022年8月大雨ボランティア 丹生(にう)ダム建設 中止地 2022年8月4日～
『中日新聞』(2022年8月7日付)。
「ゆく川のながれは絶えずして」と謳った鴨(かもの)長明[1155-1216][1]は，大火，辻風(竜巻)，遷都，大飢饉，大地震を味わった。私は，学校時代，勉強もせず，野原をかけずりまわり，昆虫に夢中だった。だから，この歌の出だししか印象に残っていない。『方丈記』に，災害が書かれているのを知ったのは還暦を過ぎてからである。神戸国際支縁機構は，2011年以降，災害の中でも，地震，津波，河川の氾濫，土石流，地すべり，土砂崩れなどにはすぐに現場へ向かってきた。たいした実績はない。主に，被災された独居の高齢者，海外からの移住者，孤児たちに寄り添うことを優先してきた。だから，損壊した宗教施設などの復旧作業は数えるほどである[2]。米国の世界的規模のキリスト教系のボランティア団体などがもっている潤沢な資金，実績，行動範囲の規模とは異なっている。一貫して，私たちは孤立した被災者を対象にマンツーマンで寄り添ってきた。
これまでの活動から，気象の予測，風雨の知識の分析もあなどれないと膚で感じてきた。
8月4日(金)，避難指示が出された[3]。3年前の2019年6月18日(火)22時22分に，村上市で地震マグニチュード6.7が発生。同じ場所である。第97次東北ボランティア中の宮城県から新潟県にハイエースに食料を積み込んで向かった[4]。村上市府屋の山北総合体育館に駆けつけた[5]。今年2022年8月3日に，その体育館は，今回の水害の避難場所になっていた。あの時，体育館に避難していた人々，傾聴ボランティアで戸別訪問した人々の顔を思い出しながら，準備した。ホームページに出ている避難高校生たちは卒業して，大学生活を送っているにちがいない。現地に行ったからといって，専門家として特別な技量を発揮できるわけではない。必要としている被災者に寄り添う。そこで応急セラペウオー[6]，傾聴ボランティア，がれき撤去，ドロ出し，畳替えに仕える。
(1) 被災地へ始動
a. 炊き出しを終えて
8月3日，仲間のひとりが炊き出しに来ていないので，伊丹市に，独り，別行動をして，寝込んでいないか確認に向かった。伊丹市には，尊敬する行基[ぎょうき/ぎょうぎ 668-749]の建立した昆(こ)陽(や)寺(高野山真言宗)がある。行基の，母方の「蜂田氏」は「蜂田薬師氏」の一族である。「薬師」とは今日でいう「薬剤師」「医師」のことである。『続日本紀』に『蜂田薬師氏は百済人なり』 と記録されている。つまり渡来人であった。彼は弱者のために，献身的に，橋・池・救護施設を造った。(『行基年譜』―「橋６カ所」，「池15カ所」，「堀川4カ所」「救護施設9か所」等) 。
炊き出しは2014年4月から，東遊園地(神戸市役所隣)で，毎週木曜日に行ってきた。東北ボランティア参加の大学生たちから声があがった。雨が降ろうと，雪が降ろうと，台風こようと，人間は食べる。だから，正月であろうと，いつであろうと一回も休むことなく継続してきた。したがって，木曜日に重なるイベント，講演，プログラムへの出席は見合わせてきた。そんな働きの中から，現在炊事は堀 浩一班長が導いている。彼も「田・山・湾の復活」の「復幸米」づくりの田植え，稲刈りの指導者としてなくてはならない働きをしている。東遊園地で育まれたおかげで，突然の災害地における炊き出しにも役立ってきた。とりわけ2017年，福岡県朝倉市杷木(はき)松末(ますえ)(2017年7月5日の豪雨 死者41名不明1名)の災害は，杷木中学校体育館における炊き出しを通じて，被災者との縁ができた。過疎，高齢少子化，多死社会を襲った限界集落松末が復旧，復興，再建するどころか，地図から消えた。災害が天災ではなく，人災であることを知った。その後，自然の河川を破壊して，いくつもの砂防ダム[7]を業者の利益のために建設しようとしてきた国土交通省の実態がわかってきた。したがって，災害地へだれよりも早く直行するのは，人道支縁，復興，お上の欺瞞[8]を見破るためでもある。
話を元にもどすと，運転中，渋滞情報を知るためにラジオをオン。すると線状降水帯が東北地方に影響を与えそうである予報があった。
b. 線状降水帯
近年，予報でよく用いられている用語である。激しい雨を降らせる積乱雲[9]が連なって列をなしている状態をいう。「線状」を英語では，a linear(リニア) [líniɚ] rainband(ﾚｲﾝﾊﾞﾝﾄﾞ)。「線の，直線状に伸びる」+「雨線，降雨帯」と言えよう。「雲は雨を溢れさせ 多くの人の上に降り注ぐ」(ヨブ 36:28)。
線状降水帯は非常に発達した雨雲，“積乱雲”が連なる現象である[10]。
日本においては，15年前初めて「線状降水帯」が言われ出した。気象庁の気象研究所を中心に，大学など14機関が連携して原因を追及してきた。気象庁気象研究所台風・災害気象研究部の加藤輝之さんによると，2000年前後に，九州地方で地形の影響で起こる線状の降水エリアについて研究していた気象研究所のグループが使い始めた言葉だと言う。
海上の同じ場所，山陰(山口～島根)，北陸(福井北部)，東北(新潟より北)の3ヶ所で次々と積乱雲が発生してきた。海には山などの地形はない。前線とも言えない，と気象庁は困惑する。
今の技術では，線状降水帯の正確な予報はまだ難しい状況である。梅雨前線や台風のような大規模な現象はある程度見当がつく。しかし，線状降水帯は幅数十キロ・長さ数百キロ程度とスケールが小さいため予測しづらい。また発生のメカニズムも十分には解明されていない。
「人は雨雲の広がりと その天幕のとどろきを悟りえようか」，と数千年前から言われてきた(ヨブ 36:29)。とはいえ，自然界のメカニズムについての究明を放棄してよいとは言えまい。
過去の事例から，線状降水帯の予測は的中率が全国で2回に1回程度，地方単位では4回に1回程度と精度は必ずしも高くない[11]。
神戸国際支縁機構が本格的に，土砂災害に取り組んだ年は2014年である[12]。台風，強風，高波被害などには単発で取り組んだことがあった。しかし，グループ全体がドロ出し，がれき処理，使えなくなった家具などを搬出，炊き出し，傾聴ボランティアをするようになった働きは線状降水帯という言葉が一般的に定着してきた時期と一致している。
オランダのスピノザ[1632-1677][13]の世界観は，ボランティア道に仕える者にとって刺激になろう。
「私がいいたいのは，聖書を解釈する方法は自然を解釈する方法とはまったく違わず，両者は完全に一致するという点だ。なぜなら自然を解釈する方法は，「自然の記述」historical natureを正しく配置し，そこからたしかなデータをもとに自然の諸事実についての定義を導く。それと同様に，聖書を解釈するには聖書の真正な記述を整備して，いわばたしかなデータや原理をもとに聖書の著者たちの意図を正当な推論によって導く作業が欠かせないからだ」，とスピノザは言う[14]。
「聖書を解釈する方法は自然を解釈する方法とはまったく違わず」ということは，スピノザにとり，聖書解釈と，天気予報の解読の姿勢は本質的に同じと示唆する。だから天候の予測の差異にも心を研ぎ澄ますべきであろう。
c. 降りしきる雨 2022年8月4日(金)
炊き出し用の保存食品などを積み込んで，神戸から新潟県村上市の府屋に向かった。都合がついた野田健二兄の二人で出発した。午前7時に，洗濯を終え，いつも6時から朝食に，納豆，味噌汁，玄米のおきまりだからすばやい。野田兄は7時15分に到着したので，コーヒーを飲んで準備を待ってもらった。800人分の積み込みを約半時間で完了した。
中国縦貫高速道路に入る前，北神戸線はバケツをひっくり返したような土砂降りで，隣の車線の車は道路をすべり台のように滑っており，道路はまるで川のようだった。時折，10メートルの高さの飛び込み台から飛び降りたかのように，大きな波しぶきをあげる。横の車のフロントガラスにたたきつける。競技の平均台がマットの上なら，何もこわくなく歩ける。しかし，10メートルの高さに平均台があれば，恐怖心なしに歩けない。同じように，普通に運転しているなら平気だが，波しぶきが車を覆うほど激しいと，運転におののく。横の車の波しぶきが車線を越えて，かぶさる。前が一瞬見えなくなる。急ブレーキをかけるとスリップするから，緊張する。ハンドルを豪雨の圧力にもっていかれないように身体をこわばらせる。スピードダウンして走行する。村上まで交代なしで運転の集中力がだいじょうぶだろうか，不安がよぎった。2019年9月の台風19号の時，千葉県館山(たてやま)市布(め)良(ら)から，同じ館山市鋸南(きょなん)町竜(りゅう)島(しま)の神田弘志&芳江さんの家を訪問した。竜島の海岸沿いの道路は，巨大な大波の岩がぶつかってくるかのような音を立てて，ハイエースを襲っていた。雲の色も，暗く，昼間なのに闇，海底トンネルで光がないようだった。運転する本田寿久事務局長の横顔も険しかった。
2021年8月9日，前夜から台風9号が鹿児島に上陸した。第13次松末(ますえ)ボランティアに向かうのに，山陽自動車道，九州高速道路が使えない。山口県，福岡県，宮崎県と下道から，熊本県人吉市に入らざるを得なかった。台風は道路に樹木をなぎ倒していた。増水した川の転落死や，岡山県でも一人が亡くなっていた。村上裕隆代表も夜道，慎重に車を進めた。
佐惣平（さそひら）橋(滋賀県長浜市)，道路には大量の流木がかかっていた。福井県境の中河内へ向かう途中。8月5日。
高時川 谷田部橋
「求めなさい。そうすれば，与えられる。探しなさい。そうすれば，見つかる。叩きなさい。そうすれば，開かれる」(マタイ 7:7)の「求めなさい」はギリシャ語現在形である。英語repeatition(常に，継続的に，習慣的にそうし続けて行きなさい)のニュアンスが含まれる[15]。困った一匹の羊を求めて，台風を顧みずに，被害者の元に馳せ参じる動機は，継続することにある。もちろん無謀な危険を避けるべきことは言うまでもないだろう。2022年はトラ年。「虎穴に入らずんば虎子を得ず」とか，「身を捨ててこそ浮かぶ瀬もあれ」という挑戦に尻込みしないことは，「友のために自分の命を捨てること，これ以上に大きな愛はない」を実践していることになろう(ヨハネ 15:13)。
(2) 高速道路寸断
a. 下道8号線を走る
8月4日(金)，北陸道を経て，第2次新潟県村上災害に向かう途中，滋賀県長浜にさしかかった。木之本(きのもと)インターチェンジ（IC，滋賀県長浜市）―敦賀IC（福井県敦賀市）通行止め。やむなく下道の国道365号線で福井県越前(えちぜん)市に向かった。そこは丹生(にう)ダム建設中止地に近い地域である。神戸の水道水に関係する淀川水系の最北部であり，川幅がわずか2㍍にも満たない高時(たかとき)川が暴れた。
視界がかすむほどの雨で，ハンドルを強く握らざるを得なかった。川と田んぼの境目がわからなくなっていた。午前7時の時点では，警戒するほどではないのに，午前9時過ぎにはみるみるうちに水量が増した。雨量は最初20，30㍉にすぎなかったと，上(かみ)丹生(にう)の高橋敏治さん(72歳)は言った。生まれてこのかた70年余で初めての体験だったと，恐怖をふりしぼるように語った。午前9時頃にはズワーっと狭い高時川が溢れて，自分の家に押し寄せてきたという。家の前の道路は川のように勢いよく流れていたことはアスファルトがドロで覆われ，路面が見えないことからもわかる。高橋さんは，浸水で家と倉庫を損なったので，もう住めない，長浜市に引っ越さざるを得ないなあ，とぽつりと筆者に語った。「洪水は溢れる度に，あなたがたを連れ去る。それは朝が来る度に，また昼も夜も溢れる」(イザヤ 28:19)と，方丈記に書かれている突然の悲運が降りかかる。
b. 長浜市の被災
琵琶湖に流れ込む高時川と姉川の長浜市の合流点では，1時間雨量50mmm以上の激しい雨のため，道路，堤防を越えた。下流域では河川敷に憩いのグランドがあったりしたが，海のように水に覆われていた。車も水の中で身動きができなくなっていた。滋賀県北部では5日朝，記録的短時間大雨情報が発表された。長浜市余呉(よご)地区全域(1196世帯2808人)に避難指示が出ていた。北の石川県の小松市，白山(はくさん)市では，3日(木)午後9時50分頃，15万人に避難指示が出た記録的豪雨になった。川が溢れて，道路を川にし，その濁流がまた元の川に流れ込んでいた。田畑も茶色の濁ったドロで一面緑は見えなくなっていた。川，道路，田んぼの境界線がわからないのだ。
2022年8月5日(金)午前8時過ぎから，滋賀県長浜市の高時川が越水した。高時川の分水嶺で北側が福井県，南側が滋賀県の両方で川が暴れた。
滋賀県の一番北に中河内(なかのかわち)集落が位置している。中央分水嶺があり，北側は福井県越前市，一方，南側は滋賀県長浜市である。国道365号を進むと栃(とち)ノ(の)木(き)峠は冬の豪雪でもないのに通行禁止になっていた。新潟県村上へ行くことを断念せざるを得なくなった。道路には高時川の上流が流れ込んで土砂が堆積していた。中河内観測所の記録によると，8月4日の午前10時からの24時間で雨量は305㎜である。私たちは中河内で，16戸の自治会の佐藤登士彦会長(85歳)から，「床下浸水に留まった」，と聞いた。独居の佐野房枝さん(95歳)の家の片づけに専念した。
中河内 佐野房枝さん 2022年8月6日
川と人間の関係について，理論だけでなく，現場で検証し，実践しているひとりに嘉田(かだ)由紀子[1950-]がいる。農学者でもある。彼女は滋賀県知事時代に，ダム事業の凍結の公約を果たした。
上から，下からの突き上げにもめげなかった彼女の勇断のおかげで，8月5日，長浜市でひとりも死者が出なかったと，私は思う。
これまで経験したことのない大雨であったと住民が語る県道285号線沿いの下丹生，上丹生，菅沼集落を訪問。支縁物資をもって訪問した。災害がその地域に起こると前もってわかっていたわけではない。新潟県村上市に向かう途上，ちょうどその時間帯に遭遇した。まだどこのボランティア，社会福祉協議会，親戚なども到着していない時間帯であった。おびただしい濁流に襲われた直後であった。水が引き始めた。浅井清樹さん(63歳)は上丹生の97戸の自治会長である。金曜日午前9時以降，住民にコミュニティセンターに避難するように呼びかけ，見届けた。翌朝，各家に戻ったメンバーたちと地域の復旧に汗を流している。「床上浸水被害」は，木之本町大見で2軒，上丹生で3軒，「床下浸水被害」は，中河内で4軒，椿坂で1件，上丹生で10軒，下丹生で1軒である。規模としては，あれだけの水位を考えると少ないと言えるだろう。
丹生ダム予定地に一番近い菅(すが)並(なみ)集落でも，嵐辰夫自治会長(67歳)たちは20名の住民をよく世話しておられた。谷井広次さん(70歳)はボランティアしながら，ダムによる水没家屋の移転まで実行し，2016年にダムを止めたことにより，福井県側から下への道路，菅波から上への道路が寸断されたままと筆者に語った。
なぜ丹生ダムが中止になったかを他の人たちに聞いてみると，渇水が問題となっていた琵琶湖の水位を安定させる効果もない。京阪神の水需要が立案と異なり大幅に下回る。そのような理由で，ダム工事を途中で中止になったそうだ。
中河内，上丹生，余呉で，「ダムを中止したから被害が増えた」，「ダムがあってもなかってもここは関係ないけれど，ここあたりはもっと活性化していた」，「丹生ダムを止めた前知事に責任があるのでは」などのかまびすしい意見を耳にした。一方，圧倒的に多かったのは次なる声であった。「老いても日本で一番住みやすいし，自然は美しい」，「先祖からの贈り物だから，子孫に誇れる」，「ダムがないおかげで，この郷土の景観はかけがえがない」などの声が多かった。なぜだろうか。まるで2年前の球磨川(熊本豪雨)と同じ対立構図がある。ダム必要論者にとり，2002年 3月に完成した長浜市の姉川ダムがあっても，今回，危険水域から免れることはできなかった事実を直視すべきだろう[16]。2014年1月16日，国土交通省は丹生ダム建設を中止する方針を決定した後に，道路整備を怠ったから，水害が起こったという見解もあったと言われる。ちょうど，ダム中止を決定した後，国交省は球磨川の掘削を約束通り果たさなかったからだという約束不履行が惨事につながった導火線があった。いずれにしても人災と言えよう。
球磨川(熊本豪雨)ボランティアで「復幸米」の田植えを2回，園児たちと楽しんだ。被災した地域の住民は，川辺ダム再建についてどんな考え方をしているだろうか。球磨川河川整備計画原案について意見公募したところ，7割が「ダム反対」と応答した[17]。『熊本日日新聞』の記事においても，国の川辺川流水型ダム計画に蒲島郁夫熊本県知事が同意したことに，見出しで「いまさら造るのか……」と[18]。長浜市と人吉市の類似点がある。三日月大造(たいぞう)滋賀県知事[1971-]は，2019年4月に大戸川(だいどがわ)ダム(大津市)の建設容認に変節した。同様に，熊本県蒲島郁夫熊本県知事も容認に変節した。権力・権威の椅子は人を変えてしまうらしい。ダム事業に固執した国土交通省の飲まれてしまったのか。
- ベトナム・アントイ地区の水害
2016年11月，ベトナム水害のドンホイから約1時間のアントイ地区も海のようになり，水をかき分けながら時速10キロで車を運転したことを思い出した。アントイ小学校に向かっていた。海辺から内陸に50キロ以上山側の地である。毎年のようにおびただしい水害がある。農産物も大損害である[19]。2回目の訪問だから，日本からの私たちボランティアを誘導してくれる者はだれもいない。立ち往生していることもわからないからだれも助けに来てくれない。日本のJAFのような緊急時に呼び出すこともできない。まず言葉が通じない。バック運転で引き戻すにも，来た道の跡は水底であり，何の足跡も残っていない。道路脇の農業用水路の溝にタイヤが滑り込んだら，万事休すである。ピシャピシャと水深約15センチの海を勘と度胸だけの無謀な運転の試みだった。茶色の濁流だから，肉眼で道路の表面は見えない。道幅は2メートルもない。対向車とすれ違うこともできない狭さだった。地元の人たちの車も見かけることはなかった。だだっ広い海洋に放り出された孤独感があった。神ご自身，『私は決してあなたを見捨てず，決してあなたを置き去りにはしない』と言われた聖書の言葉に一縷の望みをかけた(へブライ 13:5)。45分の距離を約5時間近くかけ，濁流の海から脱出できた時は，何のエネルギーも残っておらず，放心状態であった。
5年前，2017年7月5日の豪雨(死者41名不明1名)の福岡県朝倉市杷木松末，原鶴温泉などの光景もそうであった。見渡す限り，緑色は消滅し，茶色一色であった。
2014年からのボランティアで直行する災害現場[20]は，水の勢いを無視できないことを教えてくれた。
(3) 人災
a. 想定以上，気象庁は予報出せず
地上から植物の緑が消えた世界。四方八方，山，建物，電柱なども泥水が覆った。今回の石川県，福井県，新潟県，山形県，滋賀県は住民だけでなく，気象庁も想定していなかった。たとえば，石川県の金沢市は，前日から5日にかけて24時間雨量は133.5㎜も降っている。踏切に土砂が覆って，サンダーバード号，しらさぎ号など，関西から石川方面への鉄道は運休だった。福井県側の南越前町の24時間雨量は405.5mmで観測史上1位であった。
線状降水帯が言われはじめ，15年になる。線状降水帯発生の発表なしに記録的大雨を被ることもしばしばだった。そこで気象庁は，今年6月1日から，線状降水帯による大雨の可能性を予測し，「四国地方」など地方予報区（全国を11ブロックに分けた地域）を対象に半日程度前からの情報提供を開始。「線状降水帯予測」を運用し出した。しかし，的中率は４分の１程度にとどまっている。気象庁は「線状降水帯」が発生するおそれがあるとして7月15日，運用開始以降，初めて，九州と山口県に警戒を呼びかけた。16日午前にかけて大雨にはなったものの，「線状降水帯」は確認されなかった[21]。現状では，正確な予測は難しい。気象庁の計算モデルでは，半日前の線状の降水域は予想されていない。計算モデルの解像度が足りないそうだ。予報の精度がまだ充分でないことに加えて，海上で積乱雲がどのように発生するか仕組みがまだわかっていないからである[22]。地形が何もないのになぜ積乱雲が発生するのか不明なのである。さらに停滞前線があっても前線のどこで線状降水帯が発生するか，その位置は何で決まるのかも解明できていない。現段階で，海上で発生する線状降水帯についてはお手上げである。科学的に立証できていないのだ。ちなみに，日本の自然科学の上位論文数は，スペイン，韓国に抜かれて世界12位(3,787本)に転落している[23]。
「大雨があった際によく耳にするのは，“これまでこんな経験したことはなかった”“長年住んでいたけどこんな大雨は初めてだ”“ここは先祖代々大丈夫な土地だった”というような声も聞きますが，それはもう通用しない。これまで経験してないことがもう，起こっている，今後も起こる」，と[24]。つまり，意外なほどに，私たち人類は地球上に起こっている現象について無知である。たとえ人工衛星などの援用によって，コンピュータが計算上は美しく補完できたとしても，データのない場所である海洋の上，北極や南極については把握できていない。観測ができない状態から新しい情報を導き出すことはできない。気象学者はコンピューターにモデルを入力しても，実際のところは何も把握していない[25]。「あなたは雪の倉に入ったことがあるか。雹(ひょう)の倉を見たことがあるか」，と人間の知性が及ばない領域がある。かつ創造の神秘，エネルギー，調和は不可侵とも言える(ヨブ 38:22)。
2018年7月6日午後2時，大雨特別警報が兵庫県に出た。山陽電鉄須磨浦公園駅～山陽塩屋間の線路が土砂で埋まり，運行不能になった。垂水区の塩屋小学校が避難場所になっていたので，炊き出し人数を調べに行った。付近は車両通行止めになっていた。避難しておられた一人の女性(68歳)に私は食事を届けるだけですんだ。その日を境にして，スマホの「YAHOO ニュース」に頻繁に大雨特別警報が出るようになった。だが，4年間，いずれも肩すかしで，気象警報と現実の乖離はかわることなしである。
2020年7月4日，熊本県球磨(くま)川氾濫による52 名の死者。約1,020ha，約 6,100 戸の泥の被害があってからというもの，気象庁の避難勧告はうそばかり，と人吉市の被災から復興にもどかしさを味わっている鳥越肖男さん[26](熊本県人吉市松屋温泉ビジネスホテル経営者)は，吐き捨てるように怒っていた。なぜなら宿泊や予約キャンセルが続出したからである[27]。
東洋大学の及川康教授は「空振り」について分析している[28]。避難勧告に何度も裏切られたので，勧告に従って意思決定することを止めた人が増えている。気象情報は技術的限界をわきまえ，視聴者の盲信を防ぐことが求められる。避難所開設の通知を知らせる方向へ変換すべきであると，及川教授は避難勧告の中止を訴えている。人間の技術過信が惨事をもたらしていることに人類は謙虚になるべきだろう。宗教リテラシー(知識や判断力)[29]が求められる。
「主が御声を発せられると，天の大水はとどろく。地の果てから雲を上らせ 雨のために稲妻を造り 風をその倉から送り出される」(エレミヤ 10:13)。「不義によって真理を妨げる人間のあらゆる不敬虔と不義に対して，神は天から怒りを現されます」(ローマ 1:18)には，神が裁くと描写されている。災害はだれが引き起こしているのか。イザヤ書 45章7節では，「光を造り，闇を創造し 平和を造り，災いを創造する者。私は主，これらすべてを造る者である 神はわざわいをもたらすと述べられている」，と。二元論のファンダメンタリストたちが考えるように，「災い」h[‘r’ ラアー rahはサタンがもたらすのではない[30]。神に起因する。愛の神がなぜラアーをもたらすのか。誤解していただきたくない。私は，内村鑑三[1861-1930]や，山室(やまむろ)軍平[1872-1940]のように天譴(てんけん)論(天罰論)を肯定していない[31]。
災いについて，サタンのせいだ，ネオコンは終末が近いからだと主張する。そんな不安を煽って，自分たち側こそ真理だと入信を薦めるキリスト教系は西暦一世紀から跋扈してきた。私たちの教会は阪神・淡路大震災の焼け跡から産声をあげた。それ以来，ファンダメンタリストの狂信的な終末志向と一線を画してきた。なぜなら「ああ，神の富と知恵と知識のなんと深いことか。神の裁きのいかに究め難く，その道のいかにたどり難いことか」と書かれているように，神の裁きは究め難いからである(ローマ 11:33)。キリストの道に連なる者として，キリストの発した言葉を常に，黙想し，熟考し，実践したいと願っている。「三時ごろ，イエスは大声で叫ばれた。『エリ，エリ，レマ，サバクタニ。』 これは，『わが神，わが神，なぜ私をお見捨てになったのですか』という意味である」の「なぜ私をお見捨てになったのですか」，とイエスご自身が問うた(マタイ 27:46)。神がアフリカ，アメリカなどの奴隷制度をすぐになくさなず，ヒットラーを生後すぐに殺さなかった事柄には理由があるだろう。ラアーは人をへりくだらせる装置にもなってきた。
水害，地震，災害は，人類が技術を進歩させ，科学によってすべて幸福，安寧，平和をもたらせると豪語してきた過信に対する赤信号と考えられないだろうか。
普段強い雨が降らない地域であっても，日本全国どこでも起こりうる想定以上の床上床下浸水。東北，北陸で短時間の内に，「記録的短時間大雨情報」は遅かった。降水量の予測も弱めに出た。 滋賀県長浜市地域で購読者が多い『中日新聞』の8月5日付けの見出しは「想定以上 線状降水帯予報出せず」と真実を報道している[32]。現時点の技術的な限界と，気象学の川村隆一九州大教授は指摘していた。人間は自然の驚異の前に，白旗をあげるしかない。気象庁の加藤は，「解像度が足りない」からと述べている。集中豪雨が，いつ，どこで，どの程度の強さで始まり，終息するかまで正確に予測することは，現状ではできないことを民衆は知っておくべきである[33]。
b. 丹生ダムの中止は正解であった
近年の大規模水害では，洪水がダムの能力を超えたことによる水害の激甚化や，近年建設したダムが治水にほとんど効果がなかったことが言われはじめている。たとえば2018年7月7日に発生した肱(ひじ)川両岸80㎞における大水害は，野村ダムの緊急放流が原因であった[34]。
アメリカ合衆国の公共土木事業はどう変化してきたか。21世紀に入り，環境の持続性と沿岸域と内水路の生態系の回復に事業を集中するようになった[35]。一方，日本は「ダム依存体質」から脱却できないジレンマを抱えている。大熊孝・新潟大学名誉教授（河川工学）もこう訴える。「ダムの欠点は今回たくさん分かったと思います。計画を超える降雨があったら緊急放流をしなくてはならないので，結局，役に立たない。地球温暖化ですごい雨が降ってくる時代はダム建設をやめるべきなのですが，国の頭の中はなかなか切り替わりません[36]」。
「地球温暖化」が異常気象の原因であるという事実は否定できない。しかし，硬直化した温暖化犯人論に固執すると思いがけない落とし穴がある。山と川の人の関係に温暖化がどう関わっているか熟慮すべきである。
河川に流入する水量は山岳・平野部に降った雨や，山岳からの雪解け水など, 河川流域の降雪水量に大きく依存している。しかし, 降水はそのすべてが河川に流れるわけではない。地面・水面からの蒸発, 樹木の葉などからの蒸発散, 地下への浸透などを通じて降水量の約15～55%が失われる。こうした複雑な降雨(降雪～融雪) ―蒸発散―浸透―流出などのバランスによって河川流量が決まるのである。
地球温暖化[37]は将来の気温上昇をもたらすだけでなく，蒸発散量を増加させて河川流量を減らす効果がある。一方で，温暖化により大気中に含まれる水蒸気量が増えて降水量が増加すると考えられており，それは河川流量を増やすことになる。
防災には脱ダムに切り替える必要がある。コンクリート砂防ダムは森林を伐採し，河川工事とセットになっている。川の両岸と川底がコンクリートの三面張りにされている。両岸と川底が3面護岸になっている構図では，水流の加速が増し，「鉄砲水」が発生する。一方，コンクリートではなく，石積みの「えん堤」は，えん堤の内側に土砂，岩石がいっぱいたまったあとでも流速を落とすという機能が働く。そのため土石流がストレートに下流を襲うことを防止できる[38]。
1887年に中央気象台として発足した気象庁は，国土交通省の管轄である。
2001年に「中央省庁の改革(省庁再編)」が実施された。それによって，国土庁，運輸省，建設省などが国土交通省にまとめられた。気象庁，水管理，国土保全局なども含まれる[39]。国土交通省は，インフラ[40]の整備も担当している。ダム，河川整備，ハザードマップなどを作成する役割がある。その結果，気象庁が「防災官庁」の方向性に進むことによって，「研究」の機能も低下[41]していったことは否めない。
国土交通省は，防災諸施設の不備，ダムの限界・緊急放流，治水対策の不十分さに等による被害は取り上げようとはしてこなかった[42]。
c. 「田・山・湾の復活」
小学唱歌「春の小川」で表現されているように，川はさらさらと流れ，岸辺に花が咲き，フナやメダカが泳ぐ，見ていて楽しい空間でもあった。そしてなによりも，水は人々の生命を支える不可欠な存在であった。このように川，あるいは水というものは，日本人の精神と深く関わっている。その関わりを，たとえば石川啄木は「長く長く忘れし友に会ふごときよろこびをもて水の音聴く」と詠み，水に対する親しみを水の音で直感的に表現している[43]。
1872年の地租改正によって農地の私有権が成立した。それ以前，田畑の私有権はなかった。個々の家が所持する農地は，共同体としての村のものという性格をもっていたからである。「上土は自分のもの」「中土はムラのもの」「底土は天のもの」という回答である[44]。
2012年11月20日，宮城県石巻市渡波(わたのは)で復興を記念して，渡波公民館で「『田・山・湾の復活』渡波の祭り」音楽会を開いたことがあった。「昔の日本家屋は，縁の下をのぞき込むと，家をしっかり支えている太い柱が見えた。こういう柱の一本になって，人々の結び付きを下からいつまでもじっと支えていこう」という願いを抱いていた[45]。その時，神戸からの参加者といっしょに思わず涙したことがあった。被災者は「故郷」[46]を喜んてくださった。こんな歌の情景が回復され，口ずさまれる地に，津波が襲った災害地をどうすればよいのか，迫られた。神戸に戻ってもその涙が忘れられない。たとえ被災地でなくても，あのメロディは，都会とは，別な世界であった。高層ビル，便利な通勤・通学電車，茶の間のバラエティ番組の笑いにはない郷愁がある。ふる里を忘れた日本の老若男女をとらえる縁の下のはたらきとなりたいと促された。
一極集中の東京は，東北とは異なる。不夜城の新宿，渋谷や原宿にはきらびやかさがある。しかし，もろい。なぜか。権力・権威(エクスーシア)にあこがれたものの無機質なビル街，泡のような人間関係，人間味のないラッシュアワーを忘却するための装置にすぎないからである。
そんな中央のエクスーシアからほど遠い「場」(トポス)が故郷の情景である。江戸幕府からも，明治維新以降の政権からも貧農のため，出稼ぎの地方として鼻つまみものだった。そこには山里が息づいていた。清水が湧き出ていた。山は材木の経済的価値が上がることによって幕藩権力が支配を強化したが，他方の川は漁師から小物成としての税金をとることはあっても，権力が直接的な介入をすることは少なかった。水路や用水および水害対策というようないわば公的なお世話をするという関係がほとんどであった。それは川からの産物として値打ちが少ないからだろう。つまり川は歴史的にも所有権の不安定な空間でありつづけた。東京でも私が小学校低学年の時，池で，イトトンボの美しさに我を忘れたことを今でも鮮明に覚えている。新自由主義経済のエクスーシアである霞ヶ関，永田町から支配[47]され，促進してきた悪のひとつが水害である。
中世において川は「無主の地」であった[48]。
長明の時代はうっそうとした原生林で，昼間でも暗く，木々の合間からぬうっと天狗や妖怪が顔を出す感じだっただろう。少年時代の長明はこの糺(ただす)の森を歩きまわっては，ちろちろと小川のせせらぎを聴きながら，虫をつかまえたり，森林浴をしたりした姿が浮かぶ。
川に日本人の心性の本質があると考えてみよう。
たとえば，演歌の中にも息づいている。美空ひばり[49]の「川の流れのように」にも「川の流れのように移りゆく季節 雪どけを待ちながら……いつまでも青いせせらぎを聞きながら」には，日本人の感性が連綿と受け継がれていよう。故郷を思う心情は年老いても，摩天楼のそびえる大都会にいても，海外の港に寄港しても，決して忘れない望郷がある。
災害が起こると，ボランティアは立ち上がる。東日本大震災の時も，日本全国から，東北の被災地に入った。3年を経て，関西からの継続するボランティア団体は撃滅した。身近なキリスト教系の牧師たちも足を踏み入れた。動機は，復旧，復興，再建に寄与したい願いがあったにちがいない。しかし，継続して現地で汗を流すことはまれというか皆無に近い。なぜだろうか。隣人愛を説く宗教者ならば，行動に移しやすいと考えるのは道理にかなっているはずだ。被災地の復興住宅の孤立死，フクシマの放射能問題，家族の大黒柱の不条理な死に無関心で過ごせまい。ところが現場入りを中断する。まず自分達の教会の拡大を優先する召命観がもたげる。二番目に，良いサマリア人のたとえに出てくる半死半生の行き倒れを平気で放置する自己中心的なミニストリーがあろう。三番目に，すべての宗教者に共通するとは言えないが，特異な「終末論」である。カタストロフィックな天変地異を終わりのしるしと解釈し，伝道こそが人類救済に直結するという歴史観である。前述の天譴論も含まれよう。
災害とは，震災そのものだけではない。緊急現地入り，復旧，復興，再建までどうかかわるかの意志，責任，忍耐がいる。天気予報は災害に対して，迅速に行動するだけでなく，「田・山・湾の復活」という農・林・漁に関係している。東日本大震災以降，田圃(たんぼ)で稲の栽培に従事した。台風・暴風雨・干ばつは作業に直接影響したりした。飢饉による食糧不足を意識せざるを得ない。生態系の回復の研究に気象学は無視できない。低気圧の構造の一部として，「幅の広い雨の領域」なのか，「狭い線状スコール」なのかに敏感に嗅ぎ取る感性が身につくようになった。
おかげで官僚主導の弊害も地域住民から直接聞かされた。
＜結論＞
水源を支える水の里として，また，日本のふるさとの原風景を残す地域を重機で攪乱し，河川をみすみす鉄砲水が起こる直線にし，森林を荒れ放題に放置してよいものだろうか。「荒れたままにされていた地は，そこを通るすべての人の目に荒れ果てた地としか見えなかったが，耕されるようになる」(エゼキエル 36:34)。
浄水器がなくてもおいしい水を味わえる自然の回復は，健康な身体に欠かせない。安全で安心な農地からの収穫物を口にできる。土，昆虫，小動物は子どもたちの親しむ「場」である。田舎は引っ込み先なのではない。自然＋人＋農がいのちの循環を取り戻す責任があろう。「すべての川は海に注ぐが 海は満ちることがない。どの川も行くべき所へ向かい 絶えることなく流れゆく」，と循環の営みを神は組み込まれた(コヘレト 1:7)。しかし，エクスーシアが自然を破壊して，人間と自然が共生，シンビオウシス(Symbiosis)[50]という異なる生物種間の相互依存関係，相利共生，相互に利益を得る営為が損なわれてきた。
ドイツでは，2050年までに道路や住宅建設のために更地をコンクリートで覆うことを禁止されるという。昆虫が方向感覚を失ってしまわないように夜間の照明も制限されるらしい。経済成長を追求する日本は，今，度重なる災害を通じて，間違って突き進んできた道をみんなで考えるチャンスである。
ダムはムダである。そんな経費をかけても豪雨，線状降水帯，台風には勝てない。それより川を守ることである。奥山―里山―里川―田圃―河川―里海―海洋の循環がふる「里」の回復になる。
そこが「田・山・湾の復活」の原点，源流，起点である。共にしたたり落ちる汗を流そう。
説教原稿を神戸国際支縁機構の村田充八理事に校正していただきました。また不明瞭な箇所について訂正していただきました村上裕隆氏，事務局の翻訳家徳留由美氏，佐々木美和氏にも感謝します。
[1] 鴨長明[かものちょうめい] 平安時代末期から鎌倉時代前期にかけての歌人・随筆家で，『方丈記』(1212年)を残した。
[2] 第1次丹波水害ボランティア(2014年8月29日 兵庫県丹波市曹洞宗石像寺)，第2次球磨(くま)川(熊本豪雨)ボランティア(2020年7月10日 熊本県人吉市金光教会)など。
[3] 5時20分，新潟県関川村，下関では観測史上最高の記録的豪雨560.0㎜，村上市の高根で410.0㎜と報道。前夜3日23時に，8882世帯，2万5622人に洪水と避難指示が出された。
[4] 拙論「新潟・村上＆山形・鶴岡地震ボランティア」( 2019年6月18-20日 神戸国際キリスト教会)。
[5] 『中外日報』(2019年6月21日付)。
『クリスチャンプレス』(2019年4月20日付) https://christianpress.jp/murakami-city-imamura-yoshio/
[6] セラペウオーは，セラピストにも派生した「手当」のギリシャ語。ボランティア道の基本である「世話をする」に相当する。拙論「キリスト教とボランティア道」(第26回宗教者災害支援連絡会 東京大学 2016年)。
[7] 季刊誌『支縁』No.39 第26次球磨川ボランティア。
[8] 同 No.40 第29次球磨川ボランティア。
[9] 『天気の図鑑』(荒木健太郎 KADOKAWA 2021年 36-39頁)。
[10] 『豪雨・豪雪の気象学』(吉崎正憲・加藤輝之 朝倉書店 2007年 56,57頁)。
[11] 『NHK』(2022年7月16日午後4時)。
[12] 「丹波水害ボランティア」(2014年8月15日-8月18日)報告から。東北ボランティアに参加された広島の小島芙美子さんと連絡を取り合った。広島市北部の安佐北区や安佐南区の住宅地と同時に起こった水害について，本部隊は兵庫県市島の地区に赴くことを決定。https://kisokobe.sub.jp/article/6030/
[13] 拙論「キリスト教と復興」(関西学院大学チャペル 2021 年 4,5頁)。 http://kicc.sub.jp/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/a45396e87042453db96ec9be6be0fd85.pdf
[14] 『ジオコモスの変容―デカルトからライプニッツまでの地球論』(山田俊弘 ヒロ・ヒライ編集 勁草書房 2017年 209頁)。
[15] ギリシャ語の「命令形」には二つの型がある。「アオリスト(不定過去)命令形」と「現在命令形」である。前者，相手にある決定的な決断を促す意味を込めた命令である。その意味合いに「直ちに」というニュアンスがある。一方，現在命令形は，「～し続けなさい」，つまり「常に，継続的に，習慣的にそうし続けて行きなさい」という意味が含まれる命令形。(『ギリシャ語教授法中級』 岩村義雄，『ギリシャ語新約聖書の語法』(スタンリー・E・ポーター 丹羽 蕎監修 伊藤明生訳 ナザレ企画 1998年 36,217,296頁)。
[16] 姉川の難波橋観測所では水位が4.9メートルとなり，氾濫危険水位（3.9メートル）を１メートル超過。『京都新聞』(2022年8月5日)。5日付け『京都新聞』の見出しに，「姉川で一時，氾濫危険水位超える」，と出ていた。
[17]『人吉新聞』(2022年7月22日付)。
[18] 『熊本日日新聞』(2022年7月30日付 中村勝洋総局長)。五木村民から異論や困惑の声五木村議会の岡本精二議長は「村も議会も現時点で流水型ダムに同意したわけではない」，と報じた。
[19] 第1次ベトナム水害ボランティア 2016年11月15日。https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PS6kTm0xJE
[20] 神戸国際支縁機構がかけつけた被災地：丹波水害(2014年8月15日 死 2)，鬼怒川(2015年9月10日 死14)，熊本県益城(2016年4月14日 21:26 M6.2 4月16日 01：25 M7.3 死20/273 [関連死218])，福岡県杷木町松末(2017年7月5日 死41不明1)，岡山県真備(2018年7月6日 死224[59]不明8)，広島県小屋浦4丁目( 同 死 20)，神戸市垂水区( 同 )，北海道厚真M6.7(2018年9月6日 03:07 死43)，新潟県村上(2019年6月18日)，佐賀県大町町(2019年8月27日 死3，2021年8月14日)，千葉県布良(2019年9月15日 死16 不明2)，2019年10月12日(福島県いわき市 死7，宮城県丸森町 死10[関連死1])，熊本県球磨川(2020年7月4日 死50)，2021年2月13日(福島県相馬市尾浜地震M7.3 死1[関連死1])，熱海(2021年7月3日 死者27名[災害関連死含む] 不明1)，2021年8月9日(死2，負傷者41)，2022年8月3日(大雨被害)など。
[21] 『NHK』(2022年7月16日午後4時)。
[22] 『天気予報はどのようにつくられるのか』(古川武彦 ベレ出版 2019年 19頁)。雲の存在は，天気予報と密接な関係があるが，現在の観測技術とコンピューター資源では，これらの個々の発生や移動を予測することは不可能，と専門家は率直に述べる。
[23] 『毎日新聞』(2022年8月9日付)。文部科学省の科学技術・学術制作研究所発表の注目論文数ランキング。ちなみに中国(40万7,181本)は米国(29万3,434本)を大きく引き離し，世界トップを維持している。
[24] 新潟大学 本田明治教授 気象学などを研究 YAHOO!JAPANニュース 2022年8月5日。
[25] 『異常気象と気候変動についてわかっていることいないこと』(堀正岳共 筆保弘徳・川瀬宏明編集 ベレ出版 2014年 144-146頁)。
[26] 鳥越肖男(のりお)さん(71歳)は，球磨川(熊本豪雨)において，日本で最初に自分のホテルを無料宿泊避難所として解放した。
[27] 拙論「『ダムと伐(ばつ)』 第5次佐賀水害ボランティア報告」( 「小さくされた人々のための福音」講座 神戸市勤労会館 2021年8月20日 1頁)。
[28] https://www.toyo.ac.jp/nyushi/column/video-lecture/20170111_01.html
[29] 『神戸新聞』(2022年8月6日)。島薗 進「国民全体が宗教リテラシー(知識や判断力)を高める必要がある」。
[30] 拙稿 『目薬』誌 №29 (2003年 1-11頁)。主権論争 なぜこんなに災いがあるのか。ラアーは旧約に299回出ている。
[31] 拙論「『死』を考える」講座第1回目(神戸新聞会館 2011年4月11日) http://mamowth.com/kouza/3104/
[32] 『中日新聞』(2022年8月5日付)。
[33] 『気象防災の知識と実践』(牧原泰隆 朝倉書店 2020年)。本書は，新田尚(前気象庁長官)・中澤哲夫(前気象庁気象研究所台風研究部長)・斉藤和雄(前気象庁気象研究所予報研究部長)3人が編集。27ページ：「人参状雲」とも呼ばれる線状降水帯の急発達の正確な場所と時間を2時間以上前から予測することは，現状の観測システム，予測技術では不可能と言わざるを得ない。同書の97ページ：「アメダスの展開による雨量計の大幅な増加や気象レーダーの展開に，市部での局地的な大雨による浸水被害に対する空振りを避けるため， 警報の発表対象範囲は狭まった。 その結果, 河川の上流域の降水の状況が考慮 されなくなり，洪水警報の精度の低下がより明確になってきた。このままでは，解析雨量による詳細な降水量の情報が警報に十分に活かされず。大雨や洪水警報の精度向上も多くは期待できない」，と。
[34] 『科学』(2019年12月号 岩波書店 11118頁)。
[35] 『大震災後の海洋生態系』(小松正之 雄山閣 2022年 143頁)。EWN(Engineering with Nature:自然活用法)は，長年コンクリートや地面を固めるプロジェクトにより防災のための事業を実施してきたUSACE(US Army Corps of Engineers)が防災に役立たないばかりか自然環境の破壊にもつながるとの反省と住民・国民や環境団体から環境・生態系を破壊する手法を非難された経緯がある。
[36] 『週刊朝日』(2019年11月4日)。
[37] 『地球温暖化―そのメカニズムと不確実性』(鈴木靖共 日本気象学会 地球環境問題委員会 朝倉書店 2014年 95頁)。
[38] 『六甲山を切る』(高尾清 毎日新聞社神戸支局編 1969年 185頁)。
[39] 『政治のしくみを知るための日本の府省しごと事典⑧国土交通省』(森田朗 岩崎書店 2018年
[40] インフラストラクチャー(infrastructure，略称・インフラ)。災害から守られた国土を整備し，住民にとって暮らし安い環境を造るのが目的である。道路，橋，上下水道などが含まれる。
[41] 『日本気象行政史の研究―天気予報における官僚制と社会』(若林悠 東京大学出版会 2019年 292頁)。
[42] 『7.4球磨川豪雨災害はなぜ起こったのか』(中島煕八郎 花伝社 2021年67頁)。
[43] 『水と日本人』(鳥越皓之 岩波書店 2012年 はじめにⅷ)。
[44] 『 同 』(鳥越皓之 45頁)。
[45] 季刊誌『支縁』No.1 水垣渉の巻頭言。
[46] 岡野貞一[ていいち 1878-1941] 作曲の「故郷」(唱歌)。
[47] 1896年に制定された旧河川法であっても，川は「私権の排除」がうたわれている。川は所有者が成立していないできた。
[48] 『里川の可能性』(鳥越皓之 新曜社 2006年 224-225頁)。
[49] 美空ひばり[1937-1989] 歌手・女優。「川の流れのように」は1989年発売。
[50] 共生を意味する英語シンビオウシス (Symbiosis)は, ギリシャ語su,mbiwsij (su,n スン<共に>+bi,ojビオス<生きるの意>) から派生した。社会学者の村田充八は，「共生」を「死に支え｣と置き換えて論及している。『キリスト教と社会学の間』(村田充八 晃洋書房 2017年 240-243頁)。拙論「宗教はコロナウイルス後の社会をどう目指すか」(WCRP平和大学講座 2022年3月10日)。
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Циклёвка паркета — это процесс восстановления внешнего вида паркетного пола путём удаления верхнего повреждённого слоя и возвращения ему первоначального вида. Услуга включает в себя несколько этапов:
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